AUD/USD: The current rally out from 0.8580 is classed as corrective and we look for a lower top now ahead of 0.9200, which also loosely coincides with the 61.8% fib retrace off of the 2010 high-lows.

AUD/USD: The current rally out from 0.8580 is classed as corrective and we look for a lower top now by Tuesday’s 0.9075 high, which also loosely coincides with the 61.8% fib retrace off of the 2010 high-lows.

FXstreet.com (Barcelona) – The Aussie has risen back during the European morning against the Greenback from 0.8563 to test 0.8600 level. AUS/USD bounced at its intra-day low coming from its 100 pips decline from 2009 highest level at 0.8660.

Not much information on market flows so far this morning so I’m left to surmise on what’s moving the market. Early buying flows in AUD/JPY and NZD/JPY look like the culprit in thin markets, with NZD/USD now fast approaching it’s .6885 high from last week where there are bound to be some stops.

Australian Dollar recovery from a 0.7825 low on Monday has extended to levels below resistance at 0.8120, which has been tested several times today and yesterday, although the Aussie has not broken above it so far.

According to the E-Forex Team, if the Aussie breaks 0.8120, a rally of about 100 pips might follow: “Intra-day resistance at .8120 is under pressure at the time of this report and a potential breach may open the .8260 top side for a later test.” Read more…

The Aussie upside move from 0.6990 on April 28 was capped at 0.8265 on Jun 3, and the Australian Dollar has broken the upside trending support line, dropping to levels right above 0.7900 support, which is under pressure at the momemt and could be breached on the way to lower territories. Read more about the Australian Dollar…

AUD/USD retreats sharply after climbing to 0.8262 earlier today and with 3 hours MACD dragged below signal line, an intraday top should be in place. Some pull back might now be seen. But after all, another rise is still in favor as long as inner channel support holds (now at 0.7885). Above 0.8262 will target target 61.8% retracement of 0.9849 to 0.6008 at 0.8382. But strong resistance should be seen as AUD/USD approaches 0.8519 resistance. On the downside, below the inner channel support will argue that a short term top is formed and should turn focus back to 0.7449 support for confirmation. Read more about AUD and USD…

The Reserve Bank of Australia is expected to hold the benchmark interest rate steady at the 49-year low of 3.00% as the board adopts a wait-and-see approach, and long-term expectations for higher interest rates could boost demands for the Australian dollar as market sentiment improves. Read more about the Australian Central Bank’s upcoming rate decision…

May 1, 2009:

Continued rallies in global risky asset classes left the Australian Dollar higher against the US and New Zealand Dollars to end the week’s trade. Overall momentum favors further Aussie Dollar appreciation, and we believe that a break of 0.7300 is likely.

Recent domestic data pointed to improvement in Australian housing market conditions, and a marginal uptick in NAB Business Confidence results likewise bodes well for fundamental outlook.

Perhaps most importantly, the general trajectory of risky assets favors further Aussie strength against foreign counterparts. Of course, a busy week of economic event risk could easily sway Australian Dollar sentiment and cut the AUD/USD rally short.
Read more about the Australian Dollar…